![]() ![]() Only one predicted a hike in both June and July. More than one-third of respondents in the poll, 32 of 86, say the Fed will hike at least once more this year, including the eight who say that will happen in June and 24 who expect a rate rise in July after a pause. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Wednesday the economy was strong amid robust consumer spending but some areas were slowing, and that she expected continued progress in bringing inflation down over the next two years. The housing market, which is normally highly sensitive to interest rates, has also withstood the higher borrowing costs for much longer than many expected, with only minor price falls from the levels seen during the pandemic-related boom. ![]() job market has remained remarkably strong, with unemployment rising but still remaining well below 4% and wage inflation falling slowly. he's going to stick with that as it gives them an additional month of data to look at, although I seriously doubt whether that will give them any new insights," said Philip Marey, senior U.S. "Powell expressed his bias in favor of remaining on hold in June. The central bank has a 2% inflation target. The trouble is that inflation has not fallen quickly enough - it was running in April at 4.4% based on the Fed's preferred measure and 4.7% when stripped of volatile food and energy prices. ![]() That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. Since the Fed's last policy meeting in May, strong economic data and comments from a few of its officials have encouraged markets to price in a hike at or before the July 25-26 meeting, with earlier expectations for rate cuts later this year receding quickly. The remaining eight expect a 25-basis-point rise. More than 90% of economists, 78 of 86, polled June 2-7 said the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee would hold its federal funds rate at 5.00%-5.25% at the end of its meeting next week. central bank might soon pause its hiking cycle to assess the impact of an historically aggressive 500 basis points worth of tightening, having raised rates at every meeting since March of 2022. Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates for the first time in well over a year at its June 13-14 meeting, according to economists polled by Reuters, but a significant minority expects at least one more hike this year as the economy remains resilient.įed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in May that the U.S. ![]()
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